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The KOF Business Situation Indicator for the Swiss private sector, which is calculated on the basis of the KOF Business Tendency Surveys, rose modestly in April (see chart G 7). The situation in the manufacturing sector eased, while it deteriorated slightly in the construction industry. Companies’ inflation forecasts are falling and private consumption could provide stimulus to the Swiss economy.

The results of the semi-annual KOF Investment Survey point to a nominal increase in investment of 8.2 per cent in 2024, driven by technological progress and supported by the service sector. By contrast, industry and construction are reporting a slowdown or even a decline in their investment plans owing to funding shortages and a downturn in demand.

The KOF Business Situation Indicator for the Swiss private sector, which is calculated from KOF’s Business Tendency Surveys, fell in October for the second month in a row (see chart G5). Following a modest decline in the previous month, business activity cooled significantly in October. By contrast, companies’ business expectations for the coming six months are almost unchanged and more or less average on a medium-term comparison.  

The KOF Business Situation Indicator for the Swiss private sector, which is calculated from the KOF Business Tendency Surveys, fell in April after barely moving in the previous month (see G 3). Business is thus still performing better than it did in the autumn of last year but is no longer as buoyant as it was in January.

The KOF Business Situation Indicator for the Swiss private sector, which is calculated from the KOF Business Tendency Surveys, rose significantly in January (see chart G11). While firms’ business had deteriorated in the autumn, a clearly positive trend was visible in January. The operating outlook for the coming months is more encouraging than it was before.

The KOF Business Situation Indicator for the Swiss private sector fell significantly in October (see chart G 8). Although business remains predominantly encouraging according to the KOF Business Tendency Surveys, the last time the indicator was lower than it is at present was in June 2021.

As far as Swiss companies are concerned, the positive impact of their recovery from the pandemic is outweighing the adverse effects of the war in Ukraine. The KOF Business Situation Indicator rose in April to its highest level since recovering from the financial crisis in 2010/11.

Swiss companies’ business situation continued to improve in October and is now almost as encouraging as it was in spring 2018 (see Chart G 7). The worst of the COVID-19 crisis has been overcome. Companies’ expectations about future developments remain optimistic and uncertainty continues to decrease.

The Swiss economy reported a significantly better business situation in April than in the previous month (see G 14). The upward trend in the Business Situation Indicator, which has been ongoing since the beginning of the year, is thus continuing at an accelerated pace. Firms are also much more confident about developments over the coming months than they were in the previous month and at the beginning of this year.

About 60 per cent of the businesses surveyed in January claimed that the pandemic had reduced their revenue last year. The hospitality industry has been hit particularly hard: annual revenues here are likely to have fallen by about 37 per cent in 2020, with almost one in three businesses seeing a drop of more than 50 per cent. Fear of bankruptcy increased again in all sectors in January.

The KOF Business Situation Indicator fell in January after having risen slightly at the end of 2020 (see G 3). While the business situation in the goods-producing sectors is stable to positive, some service industries in particular are struggling. The pandemic is thus driving a wedge between the trends in different sectors of the economy.

The Christmas trade is of great importance for the retail sector. November and, even more so, December are usually the months that generate the highest sales of the year. KOF has therefore taken the pulse of the retail sector. Following a swift recovery in Switzerland and neighbouring countries after the slump in spring, confidence in November fell only slightly in Switzerland but plummeted in Austria.

Companies’ business has recently improved noticeably. While the situation in the retail sector is now more encouraging than it has been since 2014, it has not yet returned to pre-crisis levels in many other areas. When asked about their plans for the future, however, companies in some sectors of the economy became more cautious over the course of October.

The coronavirus-specific questions asked in the October Business Tendency Surveys revealed that around 10 per cent of the firms surveyed said that they considered their survival to be at risk. In the hospitality industry this figure is as high as one in three companies, which is also where the pandemic will have the greatest impact on annual sales. In general, smaller firms are more afraid of bankruptcy than larger ones, and there are also regional differences.

Business in the retail sector improved considerably in July. The results of the KOF Business Tendency Surveys show that the situation is now as satisfactory as it was before the pandemic. Were the events of this spring just a brief aberration for the retail sector?

The KOF Business Situation Indicator fell extraordinarily sharply in April. In the face of the COVID-19 pandemic, companies reckon that their business is faring even worse than during the 2009 financial crisis. Specially added questions on the pandemic indicate that the slump in demand is more serious than restrictions on production.

The business situation of Swiss companies improved slightly in January. At the moment it is much less challenging than it was in January of last year. Following a very weak first half of 2019, the situation has been stable since the autumn. The Swiss economy has been able to pull out of its downward spiral.