This project intends to develop econometric models for computing early estimates of current quarter GDP (nowcasting) and short-term forecasts of Swiss GDP up to two quarters ahead. The forecasts obtained from these newly developed models are intended to complement those based on the KOF Macroeconometric model during regular quarterly KOF forecasts.
OUTLOOK: The future research directions for this project are: building up small-scale factor models for GDP prediction; investigation of sensitivity of forecast accuracy to alternative quantification methods of the qualitative survey indicators; Bayesian estimation of forecasting models; mixed-frequency modelling approach.
Iselin, D. and B. Siliverstovs, (2013): The R-word index for Switzerland, Applied Economics Letters, vol. 20(11), pages 1032-1035.
Iselin, D. and B. Siliverstovs, (2013): Using Newspapers for Tracking the Business Cycle: A comparative study for Germany and Switzerland, KOF Working papers 13-337, ETH Zurich.
Siliverstovs (2012): Keeping a Finger on the Pulse of the Economy: Nowcasting Swiss GDP in Real-Time Squared," KOF Working papers 12-302, ETH Zurich.
Siliverstovs, B. (2012): Are GDP Revisions Predictable? Evidence for Switzerland, Applied Economics Quarterly 58/4 (2012), pages 299-326.
Siliverstovs, B. and K. A. Kholodilin, (2012): Assessing the Real-Time Informational Content of Macroeconomic Data Releases for Now-/Forecasting GDP: Evidence for Switzerland, Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), vol. 232(4), pages 429-444
Siliverstovs, B. (2011) The Real-Time Predictive Content of the KOF Economic Barometer, Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, vol. 147(III), pages 353-375.
Demetrescu, M., V. Kuzin, and B. Siliverstovs (2011): Spurious Monthly Oscillations and Mixed-Frequency Models, manuscript.