Press Releases

For 2024, KOF is forecasting a 1.2 per cent increase in gross domestic product (GDP) adjusted for sporting events. The sluggish global economy and declining investment in particular are slowing the growth of the Swiss economy. The outlook for 2025 is more positive, with a growth rate of 1.8 per cent in sport-adjusted GDP being forecast.

The KOF Employment Indicator shows a slight decrease in the fourth quarter of 2023 compared to the previous quarter. Nevertheless, the indicator is still clearly in positive territory. Employment is therefore expected to continue to rise in the next months. Employment is only declining in the manufacturing sector.

The Swiss economy is currently characterised by two opposing trends. On the one hand, private consumption and the robust labour market are supporting the domestic economy. On the other, the weakness of the global economy is weighing on the export-driven Swiss economy. All in all, KOF expects real gross domestic product (GDP), adjusted for major sporting events, to increase by 1.2 per cent this year and by 1.5 per cent next year.

This year’s round of pay bargaining could be another meagre one in real terms for wage earners. Companies expect to see wages increase by an average of only 2 per cent over the next twelve months. Since they are forecasting inflation of over 2 per cent for the same period, they are not anticipating any real pay increases. This is the result of a KOF survey of almost 9,000 businesses in Switzerland.

Starting from a high level, the KOF Employment Indicator is decreasing slightly. However, above-average employment growth on the Swiss labour market can still be expected in the current quarter.

After the KOF Employment Indicator declined slightly at the end of 2022, the labour market outlook in particular is now improving. The willingness of Swiss companies to create jobs remains unbroken despite economic risks.

The KOF Employment Indicator has risen this quarter as well. The renewed increase is due to modest improvements in almost all sectors. Employment expectations for the next three months, on the other hand, are being dampened slightly.

The KOF Employment Indicator continues to rise and is at its highest level since it was first introduced in 1992. Its renewed increase is due in particular to the hospitality industry.

The Swiss economy’s recovery is continuing despite the omicron wave at the beginning of the new year. This is demonstrated by the KOF Business Tendency Surveys for January. Although many employees are currently having to quarantine or self-isolate, a specially included KOF question reveals that the loss of sales due to staff absences is limited. The availability of intermediate products, on the other hand, remains a problem.

The KOF Employment Indicator continues to rise and is at its highest level since 2000. Its further increase is mainly due to manufacturing and the wholesale sector. In the hospitality industry, on the other hand, the employment outlook has deteriorated somewhat.

The KOF Employment Indicator continues to rise and is at its highest level since 2008. The renewed increase is mainly due to the larger number of companies that consider their current staffing levels to be too low. The labour market situation in the hospitality industry has improved particularly strongly.

The KOF Employment Indicator continues to rise in the third quarter of 2021 and is above the long-term average for the first time since the beginning of the COVID-19 crisis. The upswing is broadly supported: almost all sectors are recording positive employment indicators. Even in the hospitality industry, employment expectations for the next three months are now in positive territory.

The KOF Employment Indicator is climbing sharply and is now only slightly below its long-term average. This rise is being driven by more positive employment prospects: for the first time since the beginning of the COVID crisis there are more firms that plan to increase their headcount over the next three months than those that expect to cut staff.

The KOF Employment Indicator has fallen to minus 8.2 points, which has ended its recovery trend of the last two quarters. The outlook has deteriorated in the hospitality industry in particular: the employment indicator for this sector is even more negative than it was during the first lockdown and has hit an all-time low.

The KOF Employment Indicator is continuing to recover following its historic slump in the second quarter of 2020. However, the Indicator remains firmly in negative territory at minus 7.1 points. Businesses in the hospitality, wholesale and industrial sectors are especially pessimistic.

In the third quarter of 2020 the KOF Employment Indicator is recovering slightly from its historic slump in the second quarter. Despite the lifting of the lockdown, however, the indicator remains clearly in negative territory at -12.9 points. In industry and the hospitality sector the outlook is almost as bad as it was three months ago. Further job cuts are expected in the coming months.

Short-term prospects on the Swiss labour market have deteriorated sharply as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. The KOF Employment Indicator has fallen to -19.9 points and is currently lower than at the height of the financial and economic crisis in 2008/2009. With the exception of the insurance industry, all sectors are affected by this decline.

Little is yet known about the effects of the coronavirus crisis on the self-employed. A survey conducted by the KOF Swiss Economic Institute and the University of Lausanne among 1,000 self-employed individuals and business owners shows that the lockdown has in some cases led to massive sales losses and mental health problems. Self-employed people who have had to close down their businesses report a sharp drop in household income and thus fear for their financial survival.

The outlook for the Swiss labour market has improved: the KOF Employment Indicator has risen from 2.1 to 3.9 points. Various sectors have softened their negative employment forecasts since the last quarter of 2019. In addition, growth in job creation is expected in some service sectors.

The short-term prospects for the Swiss labour market have deteriorated, with the KOF Employment Indicator falling from 4.6 points to 2.3 points. This decline is being driven by industry, whose employment expectations are almost as low as in the aftermath of the Swiss franc shock of 2015. By contrast, most construction firms and banks are planning to increase their staffing levels.

All in all, HR planning at Swiss companies has changed very little in the last few months. However, according to the latest KOF Employment Indicator, the companies’ planning followed highly diverging trends: While the construction industry, insurance companies and the other service providers are planning to increase staff numbers, the outlook deteriorated for banks and the hotel and catering sector.

The KOF Employment Indicator has fallen slightly for the second consecutive time. One key reason for this development is that employment expectations in various service sectors are no longer quite as upbeat as they were six months ago. By contrast, employment prospects in construction and in the accommodation and food service sector continue to improve

The KOF Employment Indicator has steadied at a fairly high level. Having reached 5.8 points in the third quarter, it currently stands at 5.1 points. The Indicator shows that the Swiss companies surveyed by KOF in October are, on the whole, planning to create further jobs.

Companies in Switzerland are performing well, and this situation is feeding through into their plans to hire more workers. The KOF Employment Indicator remains in positive territory, with only the retail and hospitality sectors lagging behind.

The Swiss labour market is getting off to a strong start in 2018, according to the KOF Employment Indicator, which continues to be in the positive range. The last time employment prospects in the construction industry were this promising was five years ago.