KOF Monetary Policy Communicator
The KOF Monetary Policy Communicator for the Euro Area provides a quantitative measure of ECB communication.
An Indicator for Measuring ECB Communication
It translates the ECB president’s statements concerning risks to price stability as made during the monthly press conference into an index.
By aggregating forward-looking statements concerning price stability, the KOF MPC contains information about the future path of ECB monetary policy. It anticipates changes in the main refinancing rate by two to three months.
News
KOF Monetary Policy Communicator for the Euro Area, April 2024
The KOF MPC figure for 11 April 2024 is -0.26. At today’s meeting, the ECB’s Governing Council decided to keep the three key ECB interest rates unchanged and confirmed that incoming data is in line with its previous medium-term inflation outlook.
Papers using the KOF MPC:
Christian Conrad and Michael J. Lamla (2010): The High-Frequency Response of the EUR-US Dollar Exchange Rate to ECB Monetary Policy Announcements, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 42 (7)1391–1417.
Matthias Neuenkirch (2013): Monetary Policy Transmission in Vector Autoregressions: A New Approach Using Central Bank Communication, Journal of Banking and Finance, forthcoming.
Michael J. Lamla und Jan-Egbert Sturm (2013): Interest Rate Expectations in the Media and Central Bank Communication, Chapter in CESifo/MIT book - Central Bank Communication, Decision-Making And Governance, edited by Pierre L. Siklos and Jan-Egbert Sturm
Bulíř, A., Čihák, M. and Šmídková, K. (2013), Writing Clearly: The ECB's Monetary Policy Communication. German Economic Review, 14: 50–72.
Jan-Egbert Sturm and Jakob Haan (2011): Does central bank communication really lead to better forecasts of policy decisions? New evidence based on a Taylor rule model for the ECB, Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), 147(1), 41-58.
Jakob de Haan (2008): The effect of ECB communication on interest rates: An assessment, The Review of International Organizations, 3(4), 375-398.
Contact
KOF FB Data Science und Makroök.
Leonhardstrasse 21
8092
Zürich
Switzerland