Keeping a Finger on the Pulse of the Economy: Nowcasting Swiss GDP in Real-Time Squared

KOF Working Paper No. 302

Boriss Siliverstovs

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Abstract

This study evaluates forecasting performance of a large-scale factor model developed in Siliverstovs and Kholodilin (2012) in a genuine ex ante forecasting exercise. We perform our forecast of GDP growth in Switzerland in real time using real-time data vintages collected at weekly frequency. This allows us to monitor how newly released economic and financial data influence our forecasts and hence capture prevailing tendencies in current course of economic development.

Suggested Citation:

Siliverstovs, B. (2012): Keeping a Finger on the Pulse of the Economy: Nowcasting Swiss GDP in Real-Time Squared, KOF Working Papers No. 302, April, Zurich.

Published as

Siliverstovs, B. (2013): Keeping a Finger on the Pulse of the Economy: Nowcasting Swiss GDP in Real-Time Squared, The 7th International Conference on Computational and Financial Econometrics (CFE 2013), London, UK, December 15.
Siliverstovs, B. (2013): Keeping a Finger on the Pulse of the Economy: Nowcasting Swiss GDP in Real-Time Squared, The 33rd Annual International Symposium on Forecasting, Seoul, South Korea, June 23.
Siliverstovs, B. (2013): Keeping a Finger on the Pulse of the Economy: Nowcasting Swiss GDP in Real-Time Squared, The 1st Vienna Workshop on High Dimensional Time Series in Macroeconomics and Finance, Vienna, Austria, May 2.
Siliverstovs, B. (2013): Keeping a Finger on the Pulse of the Economy: Nowcasting Swiss GDP in Real-Time Squared, The 5th Italian Congress of Econometrics and Empirical Economics , Genoa, Italy, January 16.
Siliverstovs, B. (2012): Keeping a Finger on the Pulse of the Economy: Nowcasting Swiss GDP in Real-Time Squared, CIRET Conference, Vienna, Austria, September 7.
Siliverstovs, B. (2012): Keeping a Finger on the Pulse of the Economy: Nowcasting Swiss GDP in Real-Time Squared, Finance and Economics Conference , Munich, Germany, August 3.
Siliverstovs, B. (2012): Keeping a Finger on the Pulse of the Economy: Nowcasting Swiss GDP in Real-Time Squared, Research seminar, DIW Berlin, Germany, June 14.

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