KOF Monetary Policy Communicator

An Indicator for Measuring ECB Communication

The KOF Monetary Policy Communicator for the Euro Area provides a quantitative measure of ECB communication. It translates the ECB president’s statements concerning risks to price stability as made during the monthly press conference into an index.

By aggregating forward-looking statements concerning price stability, the KOF MPC contains information about the future path of ECB monetary policy. It anticipates changes in the main refinancing rate by two to three months. Since Nov 8, 2007, the indicator is published on the day of the Governing Council meeting at 17.30 CET.

The KOF Monetary Policy Indicator is published on the day of the monthly Governing Council meeting at 17.30 CET. You find here the publishing dates of the KOF MPC.

If you want to be added to the mailing list send an email to communicator@kof.ethz.ch with "subcribe" in the header.

Papers using the KOF MPC:

Christian Conrad and Michael J. Lamla (2010): "The High-Frequency Response of the EUR-US Dollar Exchange Rate to ECB Monetary Policy Announcements", Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 42 (7)1391–1417 .

Jan-Egbert Sturm and Jakob Haan (2011): "Does central bank communication really lead to better forecasts of policy decisions? New evidence based on a Taylor rule model for the ECB", Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), 147(1), 41-58.

Aleš Bulíř, Martin Čihák and Kateřina Šmídková (2008): "Writing Clearly: ECB’s Monetary Policy Communication", IMF Working paper 08/252.

Jakob de Haan (2008): The effect of ECB communication on interest rates: An assessment, The Review of International Organizations, 3(4), 375-398.