KOF Surprise Indicator

Release: May 16, 2012

«Strong decline in 1st quarter 2012»

The KOF Surprise Indicator which tracks the Swiss business cycle saw a strong decline in the first quarter of 2012. The new value of -0.05 (4th quarter 2011: -0.02) puts an end to overly optimistic outlooks for the Swiss economy.

The KOF Surprise Indicator is a business cycle indicator on a quarterly basis. It is based on the semantic identification of survey answers of the KOF survey in the Swiss manufacturing industry. It is calculated if and to what extent firms have been surprised in their plans. The KOF Surprise Indicator identifies the growth path of the Swiss economy and allows for accurate estimates of the current growth rate of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

Current GDP forecast based on the KOF Surprise Indicator - release: May 16, 2012

The KOF Working Paper No. 297 systematically evaluated the KOF Surprise Indicator. Read how and why the KOF Surprise Indicator provides a sound basis for reliable forecasts here.

For more information see: Müller, C. and E. Köberl (2008): Business Cycle Measurement with Semantic Filtering: A Micro Data Approach, KOF-Arbeitspapiere/Working Papers No. 212, November, Zurich.

For GDP forecast exercises based on the KOF Surprise Indicator see: Köberl, E. (2011): "Capacity Utilisation and Macro Dynamics from a Micro Perspective"

Next Release:

August 15, 2012