Forecasts for Swiss Health Care Expenditures

The KOF has been commissioned by Merck Sharp & Dohme-Chibret (MSD) to forecast expenditure trends in the Swiss public health system twice yearly. The forecasts are subdivided into “Services”, “Service Providers” and “Immediate Payers” in line with the data from the Swiss Federal Statistical Office.

The KOF maintains an econometric model, which records developments in the individual categories. In this model economic and demographic trends constitute the major specification factors for expenditure trends in the public health system. The predictions on the economy and demography required by the model are gleaned from the KOF economic forecasts and the demographic scenarios of the Swiss Federal Statistical Office. In addition to the model computations, the Health Care Expenditure Forecasts include specific factors such as health policy measures.

Twice a year the KOF publishes a press release and a report in German with in-depth commentaries on the forecasts.