Indicators

How did the Swiss fare during the first two waves of the COVID-19 pandemic? Using data from Dargebotene Hand and Swisscom, analysis conducted by Marc Anderes and Stefan Pichler shows that calls to the Dargebotene Hand helpline increased significantly just after the outbreak of the pandemic.

Martin Wörter and Mathias Beck are examining the digital transformation as part of a research project funded by the National Research Programme (NRP). In this interview the two innovation economists explain why the coronavirus pandemic has accelerated computerisation and why Europe is still lagging behind the United States in terms of technology.

The coronavirus pandemic has clearly left its mark on Switzerland’s innovation landscape. More than a quarter of the firms surveyed by KOF have had to adapt their innovation processes significantly or even very significantly owing to the COVID-19 crisis. SMEs, start-ups and multinational corporations have been hit particularly hard. Just under half of these companies report that COVID-19 has meant a reduction in R&D and innovation investment and a decline in innovation collaborations.

The KOF Business Situation Indicator for firms in Switzerland rose in April, reaching its highest level since recovering from the financial crisis in 2010/2011. As far as developments in the near future are concerned, however, companies are more cautious than they have been in recent months. The positive impact of the Swiss economy’s recovery from the pandemic is outweighing the adverse effects of the war in Ukraine.

The Global Barometers decrease in April, likely reflecting shocks such as the war in Ukraine and the increase in the number of COVID-19 cases in China. The Coincident Barometer is now below the historical mean of 100 points for the first time since February 2021. In addition, the more noticeably drop in the Leading Barometer signals the perspective of a stronger deceleration in world growth for the coming months.

The Global Economic Barometers are dropping more sharply in March. This partly reflects the normalization of the global economy at the beginning of 2022 and is largely driven by changed assessments in Asia. The coincident indicator remains relatively strong, but the distancing of the leading indicator from the historical mean of 100 points may be a first sign of a stronger deceleration than previously forecast for the coming months.

The KOF Economic Barometer fell slightly in February and now stands at 105 points. This is still to some extent higher than the long-term average. The normalisation since the most recent peak in May 2021 is thus proceeding. The economic situation should therefore continue to develop positively.

The Swiss economy’s recovery is continuing despite the omicron wave at the beginning of the new year. This is demonstrated by the KOF Business Tendency Surveys for January. Although many employees are currently having to quarantine or self-isolate, a specially included KOF question reveals that the loss of sales due to staff absences is limited. The availability of intermediate products, on the other hand, remains a problem.

The KOF Employment Indicator continues to rise and is at its highest level since 2000. Its further increase is mainly due to manufacturing and the wholesale sector. In the hospitality industry, on the other hand, the employment outlook has deteriorated somewhat.